According to the 2024 World Robotics report, over 4 million robots are currently operating in factories and warehouses around the world to increase the efficiency of tasks ranging from assembling cars to building more robots. 

Predictions for the future vary.  The OECD – an international organization with 38 member countries – “expects global growth [of the robotics market] to stabilize” at about 5% per year.  However, others foresee a dramatically higher growth curve.  Elon Musk has predicted that by 2040 there will be at least 10 billion humanoid robots on the planet. He also has claimed that the Optimus robot that Tesla is currently developing “will be the biggest product of all time by far… Nothing will even be close.”

The first time I read this quote, I saw Musk’s comments as a PT Barnum-type effort to increase the price of Tesla stock, so that the richest man on the planet could become even richer. (Wouldn’t you think $389 billion would be enough?)

But the more I learned about the ongoing robotics revolution, the more I came to believe that it is actually possible that humanoid robots COULD soon change the balance of industrial and military power.  But I wouldn’t bet on Musk or Optimus, because China is developing robots far more quickly and cheaply than the US.  

The exact line between industrial robots and other machines can be hard to define, but generally robots are more intelligent and autonomous than other machines and“often handle dirty, repetitive, or dangerous tasks to improve human safety and productivity.”  The line will be easier to see as the number grows of humanoid robots designed to resemble humans and interact with them.    

While the US is widely perceived as the world leader in robotics innovation, China has dramatic advantages in manufacturing and production.  And, according to the Special Competitive Studies Project, history has repeatedly shown that “even when original breakthroughs take place domestically, production determines market leadership.”

According to a recent think tank report with the ominous title America is missing the new labor economy – Robotics “China’s industrial economy is one of the most formidable players in the world, setting it up perfectly to reap the next evolutions of robotics and automation.” If a video is worth a thousand words, this will give you some sense of China’s current capabilities:   

This demonstration of 16 Unitree G1 robots performing a traditional Chinese folk dance alongside human dancers was televised during China’s 2025 Spring Festival Gala and viewed by over a billion people.

The robot shown in the video can perform a wide variety of functions, while walking at nearly five miles per hour and carrying seven pounds.  It was one of more than 25 humanoid robots that provided live demonstrations at Beijing’s 2024 World Robot conference.  At the same conference “the Tesla Optimus [which is scheduled to be released soon] remained motionless in a clear box.”

A humanoid robot has thousands of parts, with brains constructed from semiconductors, vision software and generative AI models, and bodies which include actuators, motors, drives to generate motion and much more.  Most of these parts are currently made in China, not in the US.  Indeed, “about 56% of the world’s humanoid supply chain companies are based in China.” 

According to the SemiAnalysis report “In the world of Robotics, manufacturing dominance is key. To build a complete and functional robot means recreating the robot countless times and fine-tuning each minor mistake until [it becomes] a solid, scalable, and cost-effective product… With a share of GDP three times higher than that of the US, China’s industrial base outcompetes that of America’s in every possible way.”  One result: “the only viable humanoid robot on the market, the Unitree G1, is now entirely decoupled from American components.”  In contrast, the report continues, “In the US, the ‘Made in America’ label is misleading at best, and downright harmful at worst. [It] allows for significant processing of foreign materials [which]… means a product can be labeled ‘Made in USA’ even if its core components originated in China, obfuscating the true extent of foreign dependence.”

Put these factors together, and China’s supply chain gives it enormous advantages in speed and cost. An article that came out a few weeks ago entitled “America is losing the robot wars“ noted that the Unitree G1 is available now for purchase starting at $16,000.  The Optimus is scheduled to go on sale next year, at an estimated cost of $20,000 to $30,000.  US general purpose robots may be the most technically advanced, but “one estimate suggests that [while] China’s general-purpose robots are roughly 80% as capable as industry leaders, [they] are also 30% cheaper.”

One reason behind this development is government support.  China’s “latest Five-Year Plan explicitly prioritizes humanoid development and automated manufacturing, backed by massive state investment and coordinated industrial policy. This isn’t just about economic efficiency – it’s a calculated bid to secure technological independence.”  While “exact numbers are hard to pinpoint… it is clear that the broad industrial landscape is benefiting from at least tens of billions of dollars every year.”  This support is proving critical not just for current costs, but also for future technological developments.  According to a Morgan Stanley report, in the past five years “China has secured 22% more [humanoid] robotics patents than the world’s 19 next most productive countries combined.”

Put all this together, and it is clear that the US has fallen behind China in the robotics race.  How much does that matter?  Much more than I thought before I started researching this post.  If the SemiAnalysis report is correct, it represents “an existential threat to the US” in both industrial and military terms.

An Edge of Automation white paper put it this way:  “The prospect of robots substituting [for] human labor transcends mere technological advancement – it threatens to shatter one of civilization’s oldest constraints: the scarcity of physical labor….”  For China this could address one of its greatest economic challenges:  an aging and shrinking workforce, caused largely by the country’s ill-advised “One Child Policy.”

That future is almost here.  For example, Chinese companies are experimenting with dark factories – fully automated facilities operated by robots without human workers or traditional lighting.  One dark factory operated by Xiaomi already “operates round-the-clock producing one smartphone per second – with zero humans employed.”

An even more pressing challenge for both countries is the potential for robotics to shift the balance of military power.  According to Edge of Automation “The Russia-Ukraine War has definitively proven that autonomous systems, particularly drones, represent a fundamental shift in military doctrine. Small, inexpensive drones have repeatedly outperformed traditional platforms costing hundreds of times more… [meanwhile] China’s aggressive adoption of military robotics… [such as the use of] Lynx [robot dogs] for ground operations… has accelerated this trend, creating a powerful feedback loop between defense needs and industrial capability…The result is an unprecedented acceleration of robotics technology, driven not by market forces but by the existential imperative of maintaining technological supremacy.”

The military applications of DEEP Robotics Lynx include reconnaissance, surveillance, logistical support, and search and rescue operations.   Some of its capabilities appear in this video:  

In the US, “The National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence has explicitly warned that falling behind in robotics threatens America’s strategic position.”  This in turn has “unleashed unprecedented resources, from direct funding of research to export controls targeting critical components.”

But it is almost too late.  Think tank researcher William Matthews says that “China has positioned itself quite effectively… to dominate the robotics sector and the robotics supply chain… what you’re looking at potentially is an Industrial Revolution-like shift in the balance of power.” 

As one recent review summed it up “For now, the war over robots is China’s to lose.”